How we find the fair price

Sharp and soft books

Some books, like Pinnacle, take big bets from pros and move fast when they are wrong. Their prices end up very close to the true chance. Most US books copy and shade prices for the public, so they drift.

From sharp price to fair price

1. Take the sharp book's prices on both sides.
2. Remove the vig so the two sides add up to 100%.
3. That is the fair price. Compare every other book to it.

What the edge number means

An edge of 5% means the book pays about 5% more than fair. It is an estimate, not a promise: sharp prices are close to true, not perfect. That is why we grade every pick in public, so you can see if the estimates hold up.

You can choose which book and method sets the fair price in your account settings if you have your own view.