What normal looks like
Bets around even money with a 5% edge still lose almost half the time. Losing 6 or 7 in a row will happen to everyone who bets enough. It is not a sign the math broke.
How many bets to know
- Under 100 bets: results are mostly luck.
- 300 to 500 bets: a real edge usually starts to show.
- Faster signal: closing line value. If you keep beating the closing price, the results tend to follow.
Stay steady
- Bet a fixed unit, 1 to 2% of your bankroll.
- Never double up to get even.
- Look at weekly and monthly results, not each bet.