NBAArbitrageExample
Lakers vs Celtics
Moneyline
+3.70%ARBPinnacleLakers+110$100
Bet365Celtics+105$102
Lakers win: $210 back. Celtics win: $209 back. About $7 to $8 profit on $202 staked, either way.
How it works
Learn and get started
New to sports betting math? This guide takes you from a free account to your first tracked bet, in plain English.
Guide
What is an arbitrage bet?
Cover every outcome across books and lock a small margin.
Read GuideWhat is a +EV bet?
Single bets priced better than the sharp market says they should be.
Read GuideWhat are DFS picks?
Player props where the DFS line differs from sportsbook consensus.
ReadGetting started
Getting started in 4 steps
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01
Create a free account
Email, Google or Discord. No card. You get a few unlocked picks every day.
Sign up free -
02
Set your state and books
Tell us where you are and which sportsbooks you use. The board then hides picks you cannot place.
See books by state -
03
Read the board
Each ticket shows the book, the price and the edge. Check the odds still match at the book before you bet.
Open the board -
04
Track your results
Tap I placed this on a pick. It lands in My bets and settles after the game.
See our results
Understanding the strategies
Two ways we find an edge
Arbitrage betting
Also known as "surebets" or "arbs"
Arbitrage means betting every outcome of a game at different books. Because the books disagree on price, you lock in a small margin whichever side wins, as long as every leg is placed at the posted odds. Odds move, and books can limit or void bets, so it is low risk, not no risk.
Pros
- Low risk: the margin is set before the game starts if both legs are filled at the posted odds
- The result does not depend on who wins
- No sports knowledge needed
- Works in any sport, any market
Cons
- Margins are small (typically 0.5 to 3%)
- Needs accounts at more than one book
- Books may limit accounts that win often
- Needs a decent bankroll for meaningful returns
Expected value (EV) betting
Also known as "+EV" or "value betting"
EV betting means placing a single bet where the book's odds are better than the true chance of it winning. You will not win every bet, but over hundreds of bets a real edge should show up. Nothing is certain, and losing stretches are normal.
NBAValue betExample
Lakers vs Celtics
Moneyline · Lakers · fair price -111
+13.20%EVDraftKingsLakers+115$100
This bet can lose. Over 100+ bets like it, the edge averages about 13%.
Pros
- Higher long-term returns (5 to 15% edge)
- Only one book per bet
- Simpler to place than a two-book arb
- Every value pick is graded in public
Cons
- Individual bets can and will lose
- Needs 100+ bets for the edge to show
- Needs discipline during losing streaks
- Needs enough bankroll to ride out swings
Compare
Head-to-head comparison
| Factor | Arbs | EV plays |
|---|---|---|
| Risk per bet | Low (odds moves, voids, limits) | Some variance |
| Avg profit/bet | 0.5-3% | 5-15%+ |
| Bets to profit | 1 bet, if every leg fills | 100+ for edge |
| Accounts needed | 2+ per bet | 1 per bet |
| Account limits | Common for winners | Common for winners |
| Bankroll needed | Higher | Lower |
| Difficulty | Easy | Easy |
| Best for | Safe grinders | Long-term pros |
Choose
Which strategy should you use?
Use arbs if...
- You want a small, locked-in margin when every leg fills
- You prefer low variance
- You can act fast before odds move
- You're building initial capital
Use EV if...
- You want higher overall returns
- You prefer managing fewer accounts
- You want to place one bet at a time
- You can handle short-term variance
Use both (best)
- Arbs for lower variance
- EV plays for growth
- Diversified strategy
- Every pick graded in public
Check your local laws first
A note on international books
Pinnacle, Bovada, BetOnline and MyBookie post many of the prices our engine compares, and Pinnacle's sharp lines are the benchmark we use to measure value. They are not licensed in most US states. Only open an account where a book is legal for you, and follow each book's terms. If you set your state, the board only offers Bet now for books that are legal there.